WWJD?

What would Jeff Do? Jeff Rubin that is. Last week, I went to hear this former CIBC senior economist talk about his predictions for the future. And let me tell you, unless your the agrarian type or one nostalgic for days gone by, you might not like what he has to say. In his new book, "Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller," he claims we're headed for a significant shift in our standard of living and a major downscaling of our indulgent, energy-intensive lifestyles.

For those of you who know the scoop on peak oil, he hits all of the familiar chords. Bottom line: when oil is no longer cheap and plentiful, our systems that are fueled by this inexpensive energy source will no longer be viable. It's not that there will no longer be oil in the ground or in the tar sands or elsewhere, it's just that it'll be too costly to acquire.

This has profound implications. Rubin says to sell your house in the suburbs and move downtown because the suburban landscape will be plowed over and reclaimed for food production. With transportation no longer a cheap option, we'll need to produce our own food. That's right. We'll all be on the 100 mile diet. But he says there is an upside. Without the plentiful supply of cheap crude, the work gets a whole lot harder. (The good part is coming...) They're be lots of jobs for all of the unemployed Starbucks baristas (and probably the rest of us too).

I've got to admit, Rubin's argument is compelling. I've read other "peak oil" books but somehow his predictions feel more imminent. Perhaps it's because Jeff Rubin himself has made some significant shifts in his own life. After working 20 years at CIBC as a senior economist and being named Canada’s top economist on 10 occasions, Rubin quit his job to jump on the peak oil bandwagon. He's taking this stuff seriously. Another difference is that he has not approached this topic from a geological perspective, as most have, but rather an economic one. In fact, he suggests that our current economic crisis has not been brought on by the sub-prime mortgage fiasco but rather that the price of oil reached $150 a barrel last summer. Who knows, maybe he's onto something?

In the meantime, I'm going to ponder the wisdom of Jeff Rubin and perhaps apply this scenario to my own life. In the future, will I have to stop "living the dream?" And does my happiness in life really rest on the flow of cheap and abundant oil?

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Must Have More

I don't get it. I know we're in the middle of an economic crisis, global recession, depression - whatever you want to call it. And like many, I have a basic understanding of what's gone down. Everyday, I read and watch the experts hashing it out, throwing out theories and predictions for what the future may hold. A few greener-types are the only ones that ever question the core assumption of the our current economic model.

The global financial system is predicated on the need for perpetual growth. Companies often lay off employees, not because they're losing money, but because they haven't made "more" money. But growth requires more and more resources and, in turn, more people to purchase more products. But why is it that no one in the mainstream talks about the fact that we live on a finite planet with finite resources? It doesn't take an economics degree to determine that this high speed train is eventually going to derail. We will eventually run out of non-renewable resources. In this century? In the next? Whenever that is, it's inevitable.

But do we really need more? The "fulfillment curve" suggests that after we obtain a few luxuries, fulfillment is achieved. And the more we consume, the less fulfillment we will have. Our bodies also attest to this simple theory. If I overeat, I will gain weight. The food consumed on a full stomach never quite tastes as delectable as those first few bites.

Will the great minds that hold our economic fate in their hands consider our planet's limitations? When you look at The Big Three auto makers, you can see that this is not the first time "those in charge" have failed to see the broken track in front of them. For the last decade, I've wondered how the North American auto industry could be so slow to respond to the obvious direction our society and culture are headed. But obviously, my "obvious" and their "obvious" were two separate things. While they were making Hummers and vehicles built for more power, I was at the Toyota dealership, getting my corolla, complete with $1000 green cash back from the feds.

So why is it then that there is no mainstream dialogue on the issue of Earth and its fixed assets? Is it simply human nature to avoid questioning the status quo? Is it greed? Shortsightedness? Or simply, a lack of courage? I think only thing we do need "more" of right now is conversation on the subject.

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